Africa is on track to install 17 GW of solar in 2026, a record for the continent and up 45% year-on-year, according to a new analysis by global energy think tank Ember in collaboration with African Tech Futures Lab, a global network of African experts. It would be the third consecutive record year for African solar installations.
The analysis finds that solar growth is spreading across the continent: 36 of Africa’s 54 countries are expected to install record volumes of solar in 2026.
The analysis also shows that 19 countries have seen year-on-year growth of over 100%, including 544% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 282% in Zimbabwe and 176% in Egypt. South Africa, once responsible for over half of the continent’s solar imports, will account for less than a fifth of installations in 2026 as growth spreads to new markets.
A new methodology behind this analysis traces Chinese customs export data to country level, then applies a calibrated installation rate based on installation patterns across the EU and five other markets, where around 73% of exported panels are typically installed within six months. Because Chinese export data is already available through June 2026, the methodology makes it possible to estimate Africa’s full-year installations months.
The new solar installed in 2026 alone is expected to generate around 23 TWh a year, enough to meet Africa’s average annual electricity demand growth over the past decade. In more than half of Africa’s 54 countries, the rise in solar generation is expected to exceed the historic pace of demand growth.
Ten countries, home to a combined 190 million people, will see 2026’s new solar add more than 10% to annual electricity generation: Sierra Leone (97%), Togo (24%), Somalia (21%), Djibouti (21%), DRC (14%), Comoros (14%), Namibia (12%), Liberia (12%), Chad (11%) and Lesotho (10%).
Africa’s solar panel manufacturing is also set to quadruple in 2026, reaching around 3.5 GW as new plants come online in Egypt and Tanzania. However, most of this output is destined for export to the US, and 94% of the panels installed across Africa are still imported from China. Manufacturing data is also limited, with little documentation either by governments or publicly elsewhere.
The methodology estimates that three-quarters of the solar capacity added across Africa between 2023 and 2025 was distributed solar, a category largely missing from official national and international statistics.
Only three African countries – South Africa, Tunisia and Tanzania – currently publish solar capacity data every quarter or more frequently. The report finds official reporting on national solar capacity for just 36 of Africa’s 54 countries, and only 14 of those had 2025 data, even that likely undercounting real installations.
However, that is starting to change: at least 15 African countries now have solar registration and permitting systems at an advanced stage, with several already in force, a step Ember and African Tech Futures Lab say is essential if planners, grid operators and regulators are to see the market they are trying to manage.